In times when official statements become more and more empty phrases and the different alliances are topping each other in creating lose-lose-situations at the cost of those facing practically the loss of their lives because a stubborn minority plays cold-blooded the card of lethal violence the question rises if all parties voluntarily or involuntarily participating need kind of help in form of advice. If it wouldn‘t be the Syrian people, the Assad regime, its‘ partners and the rest of the global community but a company a team of counsellors might be hired to analyze objectively the whole situation and to work out effective solutions to end the crisis. But the dilemma is that the crucial question - voting for or against tyranny and oppression - can‘t be solved with a historical compromise. Too many have sacrificed their lives up to now and too many are willing to do the same in the name of freedom and dignity. The master plan is cemented solid as a rock:
The regime must vanish, Assad and his clan have to go.
No discussion about that. Only the way how to realize that minimizing the potential victims of the still ongoing regime attacks (and not to forget of the different mercenary groups Assads‘ allies Nasrallah and Achmadinedschad have sent to strengthen the crackdown) is all but clear. Counting up all possible reasons for the mental stalemate the definitely not United Nations are in might be an approach to examine the actual state but it contains the risk of a long-termed analysis taking time the threatened people in Syria definitely don‘t have. And summoning the comments of all the real or self-claimed experts published the last months will probably lead to a similar if not even equal result. Instead of that the focus should shift on the headline question. Maybe then it becomes clearer where exactly the Gordian knot is located.
First of all the United Nations need unity. The most simple demand but on the other hand the most difficult challenge, as contradictionary as it sounds. The last voting results on Syria showed an overwhelming majority of 137 nations supporting the Arab League backed resolution while exactly a dozen other countries voted against that. But two of those twelve nations - Russia and China - appear strong enough to make the rest look like a bunch of dwarves, even the United States and the European Union. The clear the bare result of the voting might be the disillusional the influence of that coalition of the unwilling is. And it throws a dark grey shadow of disappointment over the lightblue UN logo.
The Western led fraction needs more determination in their actions. Sanctions are a possibility to urge the other side to end violent measures or to start a change in policy but if they are half-hearted or even calculated dropping slowly through they‘re not only useless but also undermining the credibility of the responsibles. As a reminder: travel bans are outspoken for a relative small group of regime responsibles - just to keep enough scope for common likewise actions. Embassy staff is partly ordered back sold as a strong signal. And the regime ambassadors are not only still residing comfortably in the nations of the European Union but also intimidating Syrian dissidents via their henchmen. Some of them are getting expulsed but the recruiting pool doesn‘t become really smaller or vanishes. A real strong stance would only be a clear cut of the diplomatic ties combined with effective sanctions and not climbing up the escalation ladder using each stair twice or thrice.
The Russian and also the Chinese government need most of all insight. (Yes, I'm hearing the voices of some raising now that I'm a hopeless case of an idealist but sorry, guys, I'm also proud of it.) Betting permanently on the wrong horse will lead sooner or later to bankrupty and supporting consequently authoritarian elements who have lost their claim on authority will lead to an irrevocable prestige damage. Especially in the case of Putin & Co it is incomprehensible that they simply missed the most pragmatical way to get what they want. Advocating the demands of the Syrian freedom movement under the requirement of keeping the naval base in Tartous. And the relations to the new elected Syrian government. But instead their defiance might probably lead to a complete loss of the Russian presence in the Mediterranean. The Chinese regime on the other side would be wisely advised not to repeat the Moscow formula like a mountain echo and simply to abstain the next time when it comes again to an UN voting. So they won‘t lose the face in front of the global community (it is not to be expected that the Communist apparatus in Bejing becomes suddenly a defender of human rights and the freedom-for-all-spirit).
The Arab League needs the UN. The only way out of the diplomatic dead-end road leads with a drastic turn towards the global community. And the first steps in that direction are made. After the monitoring disaster the often mocked ,club of dictators‘ should now seek the image repair in honest cooperation with the international partners not feeling insulted if others are having more useful ideas.
The ,Friends of Syria‘-coalition needs better ideas than to repeat the eternal condemnation formulas which are not only annoying but also frustrating in the meantime especially for those on the ground inside Syria only waiting to become the next martyrs. Time for lighting a problem candle and simply meditating the mass murder away are over and out. If the contact group in Tunis doesn‘t understand that during the next days they‘ll receive the Empty Trousers Award 2012 without having any serious concurrence.
The 2011 Award is by the way given to the Arab League monitors‘ mission.
The SNC needs more international recognition. Otherwise it will stay an umbrella organisation on the margin of the decision makers. The longer the brutal crackdown is ongoing the more the people inside are getting frustrated about the lack of measures against it and it is simply a human reaction to blame as first the political wing, in that case the National Council. A dangerous situation for the SNC possibly losing the backup from the people inside Syria who are losing then on the other side the only political alternative to Assad in the eyes of the international community. A vicious circle which has to be eliminated before it is running everything down - what would cause an Auguric smile in Assads face if becoming true.
The FSA needs support, logistically as well as from the equipment side. Heading back to the experiences the Libyan freedom fighters made during their battles against the well-armed Gaddafi troops it becomes very fast clear that light armory has no chance against heavy artillery. Tactical cleverness and pure will can‘t compensate that for a longer time. The defections are continuing and the manpower of the FSA is constantly growing but to strengthen their abilities it takes more than encouraging words.
But most of all the freedom wanting protesters, the activists and the civilians on the ground need help now. The humanitarian catastrophe is growing day by day, not only in Homs. Food and medical supply is more than urgently needed. People having fled from their shelled homes are hiding since weeks, some since months now in cellars or outside in the woods. It‘s more than high time to take action and to create a humanitarian corridor. How this will be realized s the challenge of all included parties. Russia‘s task might be in that case to convince the Syrian regime to pull back the armed forces and to guarantee free entrance for the red crescent and other groups delivering aid. If Assad refuses to do that another option might be demanding te permission to land on airports inside Syria or sending airplanes to drop down supplies over the besieged areas. A huge part of the international community likes to help the people in Syria but there is still no common road map worked out to take effectively action and no one likes to make his hands dirty. It seems that besides the regime violence also the diplomatic bureaucracy becomes another lethal threat for the courageous and resilient civilians inside Syria and therefore a multiple tragedy in the name of humanness.
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