Rating Dictators .. A (Not) Serious Sight

Nowadays all and everything can be rated. A state causing many not only headaches but real existential problems. Companies, producers, individuals - even whole countries are at the lords prognosis' mercy intensively hoping not to get downgraded and therefore becoming a worse investment product.

 

What if one of those rating agencies would be dealing with - tyrants? First of all business had become in 2011 increasing dull. Three of the 'objects' have somehow hit the road - one fled in exile, one's facing his trial, one isn't anymore alive - and two others are facing meanwhile the dawning of their monocratic rulership - one has signed his resignation and is actually in the transition tunnel and the other is becoming the most isolated of all, tendency rising.

 

Tyrants are devils in the eyes of their oppressed population and the worldwide freedom supporters. And rating agencies are seen from the sceptical public as a devil's instrument. Ergo similia similibus solvuntur - similar could indeed a headline look if such an extraordinary 'axis of evil' might be reality.

 

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Internal Document Leaked - Rating Agency Refuses Statement

 

Short before the confident analysis has reached guarantors and investors an anonymous whistleblower leaked this internal draft to the public. Besides the green marked secret recommendations the real scandal is the proposal to speculate on the army forces in Egypt (in the document below red marked), a country whose client was according to his resigning withdrawed and which is actually holding free elections. The executive board of the rating agency was not until yet disposable for a press release or another kind of statement.

Below the reprint of the leaked document:

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Conscius, Lessness & Greede - The Tyrants‘ Rating Agency


Prognosis issue 4th quarter 2011


From originally 12 clients 3 clients in 2011 withdrawn. Prognoses expecting 1 or 2 clients more before end of actual quarter. No client any longer in the A rating sector. Downwards tendency increasing. Generally guarantors and investors are recommended to change their portfolios.

(internal: green marks proposing possible new investment partners)

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Achmadinedschad
Country: Iran

Guarantors: Russia, China
Relations to: Assad, Hezbollah

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  Ca ( -1 )

Estimated ousting:  B

Notifications: Urged by the Shiite Clergy client‘s perspectives have
                      decreased in 2nd and 3rd quarter 2011. Eye on Khamenei
                      as possible common client.
 

__________________________________________________________________________________
Assad
Country: Syria

Guarantors: Russia, China
Relations to: Hezbollah, Ahmadinedschad,
                     obviously al-Sadr

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  C ( -2 )

Estimated ousting:  V

Notifications: Proven as unable to fulfill arrangements client bears
                      the risk of WR before end of 4th quarter 2011. Guarantors
                      beginning to withdraw from their own, rest should remove
                      client‘s shares short-termed of their portfolio
 

 __________________________________________________________________________________
Ben Ali
Country: Tunisia

Guarantors: The people (official since free elections

                    beginning 4th quarter 2011)
Relations to: Arab neighbors, EU, others

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  WD

Confirmed ousting:  E

Notifications: Client fled in 1st quarter 2011. Chances getting back to power
                      rated at less than 1% 

 

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Bouteflika
Country: Algeria

Guarantors: Russia, China, U.S., EU, others
Relations to: Global armament industries

Long-Term Obligation Rating: Caa ( -1 )

Estimated ousting: B

Notifications: Transparency rating results discovered a strong military
                      apparatus behind client. Chances on client‘s replacement
                      becoming higher. Eye on army generals as possible common
                      clients
 

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Chavez
Country: Venezuela

Guarantors: China, Iran, some

                    Latin American nations
Relations to: The Castros and
                     the faded Gaddafi

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  Ca ( -1 )

Estimated ousting:  LNE

Notifications: Client‘s exposed self-overestimated. Recent release about

                      client‘s medical state from a source who later has left the

                      country still causes panic among investors, downward spiral

                      prognosed
 

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Gaddafi
Country: Libya

Guarantors: Since 3rd quarter 2011 the people,
                    the NTC and the interim government
                    in a transition period until the first free
                    national elections
Relations to: The Arab, African and Western world,
                     with under esp France

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  WD

Confirmed ousting:  L

Notifications: Client decided to die beginning of 4th quarter 2011. Client‘s son and

                      former regime's most wanted No.3 arrested middle of 4th quarter 2011. 

                      Chances getting back to power confirmed as 0%
 

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Kadyrov
Country: Chechenia (Russian territory)

Guarantors: Russia
Relations to: Organized crime

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  B ( +/-0 )

Estimated ousting:  V

Notifications: Client prognosed strongly back-upped from guarantor who
                      claims to remain client‘s executive owner. Estimated ousting
                      rated because of client‘s relations. Consultation with the key

                      guarantor highly recommended
 

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Kim Yong Il
Country: Democrat Republic Of Korea

Guarantors: China, Russia
Relations to: Countries like Libya no longer.
                     Outspread of successful popular
                     uprising bearing high risk

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  Ca ( -1 )

Estimated ousting:  RP

Notifications: Upcoming age of client estimates more retarding than being
                      toppled. Eye on his son and designated follower Kim Yong Un
 

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Lukashenko
Country: Belarus

Guarantors: Russia, Europe
Relations to: Russian energy companies

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  Caa ( -1 )

Estimated ousting:  <not predictable>

Notifications: Client represents running out model. Measures to uphold
                      tyranny short-termed and counterproductive. Especially

                      guarantor Europe recommended to remove from portfolio
 

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Mubarak
Country: Egypt

Guarantors: Longer as planned the SCAF.
                    Free elections in progress.
Relations to: The Arab world and mainly
                     the Western nations

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  WD

Confirmed ousting:  RS

Notifications: Client resigned end 1st quarter 2011. Army council took
                      over. Outlook momentarily not possible. Eye on army
                      apparatus
                                                                                                                                                                  

__________________________________________________________________________________
Mugabe
Country: Zimbabwe

Guarantors: Russia, China, others
Relations to: other tyrants

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  Ca ( -1 )

Estimated ousting:  <not predictable>

Notifications: In case of client‘s passing Zvangirai (not relevant as new client)

                      most possible follower. Investors should remove short-termed
                      client‘s shares of their portfolio
 

__________________________________________________________________________________
Saleh
Country: Yemen

Guarantors: GCC, U.S., Russia, China, others
Relations to: Saudi Arabia as result of a
                     longer medical treatment

Long-Term Obligation Rating:  C with Reservations ( -1 )

Estimated / Confirmed ousting:  RS/E

Notifications: Client signed resign declaration in 4th quarter 2011.
                      Transitional period of resign in progress. Short- and
                      mid-term predictions regarding current situation
                      delayed to end of client‘s transitional period. High
                      speculative object in the meantime. Eye on client‘s loyals


 

Rating legend
Aaa    Clients rated Aaa are judged to be of the highest quality, with
          minimal ousting/resigning risk
Aa      Clients rated Aa are judged to be of high quality and are subject
           to very low ousting/resigning risk
A        Clients rated A are considered upper-medium grade and are subject
           to low ousting/resigning risk
Baa    Clients rated Baa are subject to moderate ousting/resigning risk
Ba      Clients rated Ba are judged to have speculative elements and are
           subject to substantial ousting/resigning risk
B        Clients rated B are considered speculative and are subject to
           ousting/resigning risk
Caa    Clients rated Caa are judged to be of poor standing and are subject
           to very high ousting/resigning risk
Ca      Clients rated Ca are highly speculative and are likely in, or very near,
           default, with some prospect of recovery of principal and interest
           being subject to dramatical ousting/resigning risk
C        Clients rated C are the lowest rated class and are typically in default,

           with little prospect for recovery of principal or interest being subject

           to soon confirmed ousting/resigning
WD     Client withdrawn as reaction on confirmed ousting




Ousting legend
B         Bureaucratic
E         Exile
L         Lethal
LNE     Losing Next Elections
RP       Replacement
RS       Resigning
V          Violent

Where Begins Violence? Daring A Deconstruction

Preventing injustice especially if it contains violence against weaker ones isn't a quixoticly mystified habit. It should be the natural reflex of each and everyone who follows the principles of human rights. No one is obliged or even able to collect all the crimes of violence which are happening - tragically too many are still committed. Therefore we tend to focus on a special sort of violence or a certain region where it occurs or a certain class endangered through it hoping for the time every single coordination group reports the successfull and lasting victory over violence so finally only the reasons causing it have to be fought.

Being a threatening tool of sway and usurpating power violence has some kind of fundament where it's gonna built up throughout human history. The armed force a regime for example uses against his own people to suppress a freedom movement belongs to the most unscrupulous ones cause it threatens the existence of the rulers' status quo, in nearly all cases lording over the population with the help of a corrupt, elitist minority embedded in the right positions. It's a coordinated and instrumentalized violence we, the representants of basic human rights, feel to fight against with all possibilities given to us. Same applies for oppression of minorities, religious groups, social underprivileged, elder generations, women, children .. and the closest circle consisting of work colleagues, fellows, friends and family members.

No one's getting full credibility demanding the end of violence against a certain group while beating his own children under the label of education. Real non-violence leaves the most effective impression exemplifying it to the others through one's own life. And real non-violent behavior contains also the historic compromise to tolerate - without supporting it - violent measures of rebellious fractures and/or third parties to prevent a humanitarian disaster including in the worst case a genocide. Was Rwanda preventable? Or Hama before? Barely, inter alia due to the development status of mass technologies in '82 and their global spread in '94. But today in each corner of our planet individuals are provided with handycams and smartphones, nearly always connected to the web and for this reason able to watch and record tendencies towards mass murder or similar cruelties.

Ok, I'm sure the overwhelming majority of us is not beating their kids for a bad school grade or their wives for coming home too late - my glass stays half-full.  But what about the more or less subtle forms of violence in our daily lives we are in the meantime mainly unconsciously exposed to?

Example 1: queues. Under the 'first comes first serves' aspect to be regarded as a source of subtle violent outbreaks - fascinatingly short after another cashier has opened. Sub-genre ski lift: an extraordinary place to study mass behavior. Not only if classic ski riders and boarders collide. Cross category bumper-to-bumper traffic jam: a place where every involved one's patience is been proven. Except to the last genre no lethal cases reportedly known by now.

Example 2: road traffic. No cliché, insightful reality, at least in Germany. The moment even truly peaceful natures becoming kind of taking everything a bit too serious - too fast, too slow, why is this douchebag in front of me turning to the left while blinking to the right etcetera etcetera. A tendency to aggression and therefore possible violent consequences. Lethal cases on a high level even if the yearly's collision rate is reduced to the proven cases of aggressivity.

Example 3: administrative offices. The number of violent assaults committed by frustrated applicants has increased in the last years. A disturbing trend where the civil servant is reduced to her or his position in the mind of the perpetrator. First cases causing severe injuries reported. Some offices have reacted now 'demilitarizing' work places and bureaus by keeping sharp, combustible or heavy objects out of the clients' reach.

Example 4: train and metro stations. Victims are mainly no longer individuals becoming 'ones of those' regarded as welcomed outlet for the exploding cocktail of reflected anger and frustration and boredom. Lethal cases in alarming regularity reported in the last years.

Of course acts of solidarity and togetherness are happening in the foresited places too; the readiness to help others is more than mentioning it worth, but the shadow of the deeds of some who've lost temporarily their self control will always subduct the energy of the good actions, even if they appear several times more, like the drop of oil which is able to contamine a huge ammount of drinking water.

Everything's linked up and many of it has to be discovered or simply brought back into the minds. The subtle violence is like the seedling while the mental and physical violence's expressed through the blades of grass ranking visibly up. We all want soon a non-violent world? Then we have to sharpen our view for the complete spectre of violence. Every attempt to end it in its' subtle forms is an attempt to scotch it. And every successful counter measure preventing or defeating it is like extracting the next level of violence the oxygen.

Living a complete non-violent life on all ranks and levels means neither an overburdening life as an enlighted devotee nor is it unrealistic. By focussing the awareness in every direction containing the potential for violence and by perceiving subtle violence as precise as perilous one we may soon be able to resist every seduction acting (un)consciously violent. No longer playing (un)willingly the 'Master And Servant' game. No longer feeding the beast instead of fighting it.

Maybe together with the consquent elimination of violence out of the homes, the neighborhood, the environment and finally the whole world the moral courage may increase again. Violent orientated human beings rely on the percentage of silencers and those looking away. The bigger the group of individuals becoming in a life threatening situation impassive the better for the delinquents. Tragical consequence of a growing lack of moral courage are situations in which minors broken into ice or fallen into seas hadn't been rescued although several dozens adults were standing around not able to react in the right moment. Even if our first emotions are beyond comprehension - one of the explanations for the phenomenon of the sudden collective inactivity is the decrease of the courage to stand up for one's beliefs.

And if anyone needs now still an argument: non-violence never hurts. Doesn't mean that a non-violent actor doesn't risk getting hurt through an attack of an offender unwilling to unarmed dialogue. Coming into the terrain of self defense. An own post worth ..

Hajj 2011 - Bilder Einer Pilgerreise

Der Fernsehapparat läuft bei mir gelegentlich im Hintergrund, während ich schreibe oder Grafiken gestalte. Stört in dem Fall nicht, da ich ebenfalls Bestandteil einer polykommunikativen Generation bin, der imstande ist, durch parallele Wahrnehmung den einen oder anderen Konzentrationsknoten seines jeweiligen Hauptaufgabenbereichs auflösen zu können. So auch gestern am frühen Abend, als Pro 7 sein Wissensformat Galileo - benannt nach einem grossen italienischen Entdecker - auszustrahlen begann.

Es folgte eine gut halbstündige Reportage über die diesjährige Hajj, die Pilgerfahrt an die Heiligen Stätten in und um Mekka. Dem Reporterteam ist es tatsächlich gelungen, Aufnahmen während der Reise drehen zu dürfen - auch wenn das kurzfristige Drehverbot im inneren des Heiligen Bezirks um die Kaaba beinahe schon zu auffällig dokumentiert sein mag, einziger Kritikpunkt meinerseits.

Die Intensität der Bilder ist wirklich beeindruckend und vermittelt selbst dem Betrachter, der sich bis dato noch nicht wirklich mit der Religion des Islam beschäftigt hat, gerade durch das subjektive Erleben des Reporters, der hauptsächlich als Pilger denn als Berichterstatter unterwegs war, gemeinsam mit den objektiven Aufnahmen 'hinter den Kulissen' - Organisation, Sicherheit, Logistik etc. - einen durchaus klaren und dennoch nicht zu aufdringlichen, wohlmöglich entweihenden Einblick in den spirituellen Höhepunkt eines jeden Muslim.

Wissen beseitigt Ängste und Unsicherheiten, die ihrerseits fatale Missverständnisse auslösen können. Um den Mythos des Zweifels auflösen zu können, muss allerdings genau hingeschaut werden, und das bedeutet präzise abzuwägen zwischen den notwendigen Bildern und Informationen, die Aufklärung garantieren und den überflüssigen Bildern und Informationen, die entweder zuweit in den Privatbereich eines oder mehrerer Individuen hineinragen oder die das Heilige Innere einer Glaubens- oder Überzeugungsgemeinschaft zu entweihen drohen.

Eine Form der Entmythologisierung, die ich einem Privatsender in der Form  nicht zugetraut hätte. Vor allem durch einen besonderen Umstand, der mir als Respektsbezeugung der Thematik im allgemeinen sowie der Religion des Islam im speziellen vorkam:

Der komplette Beitrag wurde ohne eine einzige Werbeunterbrechung ausgestrahlt.

http://www.prosieben.de/tv/galileo/videos/clip/241789-mekka-auf-den-spuren-des-propheten-1.2978138/ 

Zugegeben, eine derartige Reportage hätte ich aus dem Bauch heraus eher unseren kulturtragenden Sendern wie ARTE oder 3Sat zugetraut, doch im nachhinein bin ich mir nicht sicher, ob ihnen ein besserer Bericht gelungen wäre. Pro 7 erreicht als Privatanbieter mit dem Schwerpunkt auf Unterhaltung ein breiter gestreutes Publikum und hat es in der Tat geschafft, einen ausgewogenen Beitrag mit dem nötigen Fingerspitzengefühl auszustrahlen.

To Intervene Or Not To Intervene ..

.. that is the question: Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer, The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles .. (From Hamlet 3/1 by W Shakespeare)

Many steps have been taken by the international community to condemn the disgraceful violence committed by the regime forces, to demand an immediate ceasefire including the withdrawal of the army and especially the shabiha and in the meantime to deny Bashar al-Assads' legitimacy to rule the country any longer.

But even after the Arab League's last decision to approve widespread economical sanctions the Syrian regime appears on the surface unimpressed and speaks however from "an invitation for foreign intervention instead of a call to avoid one .."  ( http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/11/20111127143750187116.html ) .. but aren't sanctions like account freezes and travel bans en masse imposed by foreign countries (yes, Syria is Arab League; no, Arab League is not Syria) also kind of interventions? The armed or military option is ultima ratio if the situation is escalating in a form the majority (or a courageous minority) who can't tolerate it any longer. One fundamental idea has toujours to be concidered: keeping civilians out of combat operations, protecting and in the case of emergency evacuating them.

A buffer zone might be the only halfway realistic start-up now after all the slaps of ignorance the regime dished out in the last months as only answer on appeals, addresses, condemnations, protocols and in the end also resolutions. With it the borderline from non-violent to armed intervention will be also passed. The question is: are parts of the international community ready to take the responsibility for the possible consequences of repelling the opponent and gaining terrain?

Fact is the situation urges in the meantime urgent measures to stop the regime forces'  never-ending random killing and to prevent a possible humanitarian catastrophe in the cold light of the upcoming winter. That's the moment when the moral issue's putted on the table for all supporters of unarmed resistance. 'We haven't used all our effortible measures .. there must be still some .. give us time to think about it -"

Stop.

Hadn't we time enough to witness day for day despiteous atrocities in the name of an elitist minority who's writing the catalogue of crimes against humanity anew? 3.000, 4.000, in the worst case more then 10.000 have lost their lives during the more than eight months continuing slowmotion genocide.

When is a heap a heap? Are 3 a heap? Or 9? Maybe 18? 20? In the case of Syria meanwhile 30 or 45?  The Assad regime uses this paradox cold-blooded and systematically to nebulize the collective deception. What an outcry if 4.000 civilians will be killed at once, a dimension reminding on the Hama massacre of 1982 with estimated eight times more of it. On the other side the journalistic sapiency 'one victim's a tragedy, many victims are a statistic' plays a role to pendle the "ideal" daily number of martyrs.

Systematically.

It can't be coincidence that each day a certain number of killed civilians is sadly to be counted. All the children, even the newborn lying on their mothers shoulder, all the women, all the older ones are evidence that the regime ordered the randomly appearing killing, better known as:

Murdering.

The Free Syrian Army has to be supported militarically and logistically to create such a buffer zone. They are no 'rag tag rebels' (what the Libyan Freedom Fighters also wasn't, au contraire ..), all of them had until the moment of their defection an effective military instruction (the Syrian regime's praising the professionality of its' army not often enough). Them must be given the chance to oppose against the regime forces if it has to be with armed support.

And suddenly an argument becomes visible at least to tolerate a military measure to prevent further crimes against humanity ..

In Syria.

This is not the Star Trek world where intervention in foreign systems is stricktly forbidden. This is planet Earth, and we are one unique system called humans.

Welcome To Helalaland

This year brought us not only a global strive for freedom as to be seen in the remaining oppressive rulerships and monocracies or the occupied territories. It brought us also in another form together, learning about other believers' religious views. Be it the Buddhism of the Tibetans in their struggle for independence even as well as the Christian Orthodoxy of the Belarusians which are facing at the moment arrest for praying in open spaces.

The Islam was here in Europe always watched with a grain of concern about a latent aggressivity. Fact is that a radical minority still acts in words and deeds and through a generalization the whole religion is to be blamed for. Some parts of the Christian rooted Western societies regard it as a 'general threat' to their own values and life principles. But most of them are simply forgetting about their concerns that the Christian religion a) had a real bad period in the times of the colonialisation urging many native tribes to confess on Jesus Christ and the Bible or to face the certain death and b) radical Christians have always played a more or less active role as a fundamentalist minority.

It's a well balanced scale of respect and tolerance that allows you to get as Non-Muslim in contact with the world of Mohammed The Prophet. If you visit a mosque you certainly won't do that bare-naked or with your shoes on. Same it is vice versa: inadequate behavior in a Roman-Catholic church won't be accepted at all like loud conversation and flashlight shooting during the prayers. What is 'harram' to a Muslim mustn't be forbidden for us. But the respect demands from us to avoid 'harram' in the presence of a Muslim. It's our entry ticket in their world and we shouldn't be presumptuous to expect the same from them regarding our own liberties which are - let us be honest - partial offending to other religions, not only the Islam.

Modern Christianity is waving proudly the banner of Aufklärung due to the theological-philosophical developments mainly of the last century. Our thinktanks, mainly the reformed protestants, have deconstructed the Christian fundament and built it again up. But some streamings - let's call them the retro-extremists - have closed their eyes to the necessary tolerance interacting with other religions. They focus their newly formulated belief under the umbrella of fear and mistrust. In times of the great global get-together an alarming and also dangerous attitude. Main target of those retro-extremists are not agnostics or tribal rooted sects: they see the biggest threat in the confrontation with the Islam.

If we take a closer look to the progression the Muslim society is now heading to mainly due to the Arab Spring it appears somehow as if we are looking in a mirror. Similarities aren't all but incidentally. I like to pick up three examples to demonstrate my point of view:

First, the role of the women in the modern Muslim society. The uprising in Yemen for example is also led by a group of strong, courageous and very resilient women from all classes including mothers as well as young academics. Their constant thrive for freedom and a new political era under usage of strictly non-violent methods in one of the poorest countries in the region was appreciated with the Nobel peace price this year for Tawakkol Karman. Those women don't let themselves reduce on their headscarf. But that doesn't mean that they rebel against the Holy Book of the Quran. They simply rise up against antiquated conceptions of patriarchy. Sounds that somehow familiar to us? Of course it does, from the Sufragette movement to modern feminism the discussions about equal rights for women are meanwhile a natural part of our social life. The biggest trap we could step in is to conclude an incompability of the women's rights with the principles of the Islam. Some of the retro-extremists rely upon this Manicheism due to their lack of tolerance and understanding.

A closer look on Tunisia leads me to the second example. Tunisians were the first who toppled their dictator and now they're having their first free elected parliament. Hue and cry started among the Islamophobes when the election victory of Ennahda was announced. Fears of an islamization and therefore radicalization circled around the lobby of worriers. But they all forgot two evident things to implement in their concerns. The Tunisian society is in comparison to the Egyptians for example generally conservative orientated. And Ennahda is the political branch of a moderate Islam comparable to the Christ-Conservative parties in Europe. Nobody would implicate Germany's Christian Democratic Union in fundamentalist radicalization. The same should apply to Ennahda.

Finally I will bring a very strong image into the minds I've seen several times now in Syria. The Assad regime strays since months sectarian fears as one of their propaganda lies to maintain their murderous rulership. Christians and Alawi Muslims should feel threatened by the possible coming into power of the Sunni majority. But the reality in Homs and other cities speaks a different language: prominent Alawis are joining the protests in Sunni districts. Muslims are praying together with Christians. Somehow a déja vu regarding similar images here in the recent. France may try to ban the Niqab, Geert Wilders may lament in the Netherlands about too many Muslims in the country - in the end the pictures of a community which has overcome the stereotypes of segregation will remain in our minds. A quite remarkable example for that is the continuing work on a successful integration of the Turkish community in Germany. Sure, not all works well and some differences still have to be discussed but the general tendency is a big point for integration instead of assimilation.

Extreme situations are bringing people from different religions together instead of dividing them. In normal situation it takes a bit more self-motivation stepping towards each other. Especially in these times of digital globalization it is possible to be connected with other cultures and therefore also other religions even without leaving our country. Open-hearted tolerance is the first step approaching each other. The second is the respect for the vis-à-vis' opinion.

The Islam isn't the big threat a minority among us wants to make us believe. The understanding for that can only grow in the direct confrontation with the world and the views of the Muslims, not through closing the eyes or watching away. And isn't it much more exiting to learn about others together with them instead of defending the borders of the own picket fence against imaginary threats?