After one week staying in Antakya a reliable estimation of the situation inside Syria is still as foggy as the week, the month, the year before. Only fact given is the dramatical situation of the refugees staying here in this tiny Southern Turkish province.
Haven‘t counted all those tipping points felt and red lines crossed. But they are indeed enough to devalue completely any form of prognosis close to that what we call reality on the ground. All we see are daily counted more than hundred victims under the civilians, sometimes the bodycount is triple as high if another mass killing is committed. Some say i‘s a question in between few weeks that the regime is finished, others guess it‘ll take some months, maybe more, depending on the next steps the global powerful decide.
Exactly the same global powerful fueling the conflict with their hesitating and calculating stance preferring an as-long-as-possible draw between both sides, the regimers and the revolutionaries.
The question why the play such a dirty game at the cost of tens of thousands lives might lead to different, nevertheless shocking possible answers:
One is that most of all Syria‘s neighbors, Israel and Iran, profit from an unstable battleground. Israel, to shift the perception away from it‘s own questionable policy especially in Palestine and Gaza and to renew automatically the necessarity to protect its‘ population and its‘ borders with more arms facing the threat of chaos in Syria as well as the threat of getting invaded by militarized Muslims. Iran, to keep up the own oppressive system which in the case of a successful revolution in Syria might get endangered by an encouraged Iranian population trying to get rid of the authoritarian hydra the third time in more than three decades.
Regarding the global players and bigger blocks the answer might get more bitter. Immediate help for one of both sides, be it Russia in the case of Assad or the United States in the case of some revolutionaries‘ factions, might lead to an early success of one side wasting the historical chance of studying and analyzing the uprising in all its‘ ugly consequences if pushed into the right direction, the stalemate. Studying to learn about the mechanisms and the nature of revolutions, analyzing to understand how to avoid a similar situation in their own countries if the people start an uprising. This kind of field test crowns the top of the divide-et-impera pyramid. The wanted war. Probably best sold to the public as a serious situation too complicated to intervene in a hurry.
Poor Syrians. Being both forgotten and abused by all those asked to help and support them against their ruthless ruling elites. The more their unbroken will to finish this uprising by overcoming the regime has to be honored.
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