One question is occupying me: Does Bashar al-Assad play chess? Admittingly an unusual question but I believe it is more than justified now and here. As an academic who has spent years in London‘s society life he may know the ,game of kings‘, probably better than Libya‘s former tyrant Muammar Gaddafi.
To explain my intention we have to go back to the beginning of the uprising against the Syrian regime. After the incidents in Daraa seven and a half months ago a protest wave rolled over the whole country, more and more Syrians have torn down ,the wall of fear‘ the dynasty installed in two generations to maintain their power. Spontaneous protests became better organized, a network was set up through activists, the local coordination commitees began to coordinate the impressive but always peaceful rallies against the monocracy of the Baath party. In response Assad ordered a crackdown of the revolt sending police, military units and the secret services in the rebelling districts.
Violence against civilians is nothing new in Bashar al-Assad‘s Syria. His father Hafez has built up an effective totalitarian police state with many inofficial informants. Freedom and human rights are more than illusive, everyone and everything is controlled by an immense apparatus granting the inner security. The former East German Staatssicherheitsdienst appeared against that as a bunch of bloody amateurs.
But the resistance has grown. What took place mainly on Fridays after the traditional prayers continued from week to week widening to a daily protest movement combined with general strikes, flashmob-like events and other forms of non-violent actions to express the demand of the people: The regime has to step down.
In the first months of the uprising Bashar al-Assad presented himself only three times to the public, promising effective reforms without mentioning further details, imploring a necessary dialog with representatives of the opposition (a group of tolerated officials more loyal to the regime) and constructing a crude conspiracy theory around armed gangs and foreign interests. The suppression of the protesters became, basing on the ,armed gangs‘ legend, more brutal, the shabeeha, an organization of well-paid thugs to threaten and intimidate the civil population, was the first time to be seen in uploaded mobile phone videos doing their dirty, bloody and most lethal business.
The goal of the regime was to eliminate the think tank of the uproar. Those who were responsible organizing simple but effective resistance were chased, detained, killed or had no other chance to flee out of the country trying to support the protest movement from their not voluntarily chosen exile. The offspring occupied the empty strategic positions coordinating the actions on the streets and in the places to raise international awareness and sympathy for the protest movement.
With the beginning of this year‘s Ramadan a new wave of regime violence shattered the Syrian cities and provinces. More civilians lost their lives than in the months before, among them, shocking images of women and children being shot randomly were going around the world and the Western nations began to initiate meetings to impose political and economic sanctions against Syria.
In contrary to Gaddafi who raised his voice during the battle against his own people in Libya threatening each and everyone with retaliation Assad remained silent. Only his foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, made from time to time some provoking remarks. Knowing that they‘re back-upped by their mighty friend Russia the regime officials behaved themselves extremely distinguished in view of the increasing violence of the security forces.
On the other side every attempt the regime thugs and the security forces took to discredit the peaceful protesters ended in pure dilettantism. Videos of so called armed gangs were rapidly discovered as fake footages and arranged visits from western journalists ended merely as a public relations disaster for the regime like in Hama where the army was shortly pulled back to present a calm and quiet city and then returned to continue the crackdown with increasing gunfire.
After the meeting with the delegation of the Arab League who gave the regime another two more weeks to change the crackdown policy Assad‘s security forces began to intense the random violence rapidly. Not one single day ended without at least one killed child. The mortal rate nearly doubled in this time and the free world reacted shocked and speechless. The diplomatic tensions between Syria and the United States reached a new bottom point.
In his latest public appearance Assad sold the world public the image of a calm, distanced ruler who has everything under control. Mentioning that not all went perfect according to the crackdown measures he even started the attempt to marginalize the cruel attacks of the regime thugs. I'm not commenting his threats against the Western world in purpose, this would lead to speculations others kept busy with. Reading the interview I really had the imagination of a giant Halwassa pill sitting next to me and telling that the world is a bit strange but generally fine.
That brings me back to my question. What is the real intention of the regime? A good chess player is in the right moment incalculable. The rest of the time he avoids appearing in any form superior. Where Gaddafi completely failed Assad seems to know the chess rules. He made the world believe that he‘s short-sighted and incompetent. But in my opinion he follows the whole time a clear strategy to maintain his rulership and to justify the abnormal violence against the civil society.
After eliminating the second generation of activists and protest organizers who at least thought about the option their successors seem apparently willing to start an armed uprising as only chance to get rid of the regime and to end the continuing crimes. What sounds like the ultima ratio bears at this point an enormous risk: If this happens before big brother Russia may have dropped down his cronies in Damascus Assad‘s tactic unfortunately has a chance for success. All what the regime wants is to turn the historic peaceful movement into a violent one. Provoking the civilians with abnormous crimes against humanity Assad urges the protesters to become frustrated and to hit back. Than the whole process of the last half year would be led ad absurdum.
Some may argue now that it is easy to sit in a safe place in the middle of Europe commenting the situation from outside. That it is arrogant to write about the inhuman incidents without ever being self in such a situation not knowing how the people inside Syria really think and feel about it. The decision in what direction the uprising may head is neither up to me nor to everybody outside. The only ones who can handle it are the Syrians in the country. But I hope that they have the power to resist all the regime‘s cold-blooded provocations. And that Assad‘s tactics will finally fail.
To explain my intention we have to go back to the beginning of the uprising against the Syrian regime. After the incidents in Daraa seven and a half months ago a protest wave rolled over the whole country, more and more Syrians have torn down ,the wall of fear‘ the dynasty installed in two generations to maintain their power. Spontaneous protests became better organized, a network was set up through activists, the local coordination commitees began to coordinate the impressive but always peaceful rallies against the monocracy of the Baath party. In response Assad ordered a crackdown of the revolt sending police, military units and the secret services in the rebelling districts.
Violence against civilians is nothing new in Bashar al-Assad‘s Syria. His father Hafez has built up an effective totalitarian police state with many inofficial informants. Freedom and human rights are more than illusive, everyone and everything is controlled by an immense apparatus granting the inner security. The former East German Staatssicherheitsdienst appeared against that as a bunch of bloody amateurs.
But the resistance has grown. What took place mainly on Fridays after the traditional prayers continued from week to week widening to a daily protest movement combined with general strikes, flashmob-like events and other forms of non-violent actions to express the demand of the people: The regime has to step down.
In the first months of the uprising Bashar al-Assad presented himself only three times to the public, promising effective reforms without mentioning further details, imploring a necessary dialog with representatives of the opposition (a group of tolerated officials more loyal to the regime) and constructing a crude conspiracy theory around armed gangs and foreign interests. The suppression of the protesters became, basing on the ,armed gangs‘ legend, more brutal, the shabeeha, an organization of well-paid thugs to threaten and intimidate the civil population, was the first time to be seen in uploaded mobile phone videos doing their dirty, bloody and most lethal business.
The goal of the regime was to eliminate the think tank of the uproar. Those who were responsible organizing simple but effective resistance were chased, detained, killed or had no other chance to flee out of the country trying to support the protest movement from their not voluntarily chosen exile. The offspring occupied the empty strategic positions coordinating the actions on the streets and in the places to raise international awareness and sympathy for the protest movement.
With the beginning of this year‘s Ramadan a new wave of regime violence shattered the Syrian cities and provinces. More civilians lost their lives than in the months before, among them, shocking images of women and children being shot randomly were going around the world and the Western nations began to initiate meetings to impose political and economic sanctions against Syria.
In contrary to Gaddafi who raised his voice during the battle against his own people in Libya threatening each and everyone with retaliation Assad remained silent. Only his foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, made from time to time some provoking remarks. Knowing that they‘re back-upped by their mighty friend Russia the regime officials behaved themselves extremely distinguished in view of the increasing violence of the security forces.
On the other side every attempt the regime thugs and the security forces took to discredit the peaceful protesters ended in pure dilettantism. Videos of so called armed gangs were rapidly discovered as fake footages and arranged visits from western journalists ended merely as a public relations disaster for the regime like in Hama where the army was shortly pulled back to present a calm and quiet city and then returned to continue the crackdown with increasing gunfire.
After the meeting with the delegation of the Arab League who gave the regime another two more weeks to change the crackdown policy Assad‘s security forces began to intense the random violence rapidly. Not one single day ended without at least one killed child. The mortal rate nearly doubled in this time and the free world reacted shocked and speechless. The diplomatic tensions between Syria and the United States reached a new bottom point.
In his latest public appearance Assad sold the world public the image of a calm, distanced ruler who has everything under control. Mentioning that not all went perfect according to the crackdown measures he even started the attempt to marginalize the cruel attacks of the regime thugs. I'm not commenting his threats against the Western world in purpose, this would lead to speculations others kept busy with. Reading the interview I really had the imagination of a giant Halwassa pill sitting next to me and telling that the world is a bit strange but generally fine.
That brings me back to my question. What is the real intention of the regime? A good chess player is in the right moment incalculable. The rest of the time he avoids appearing in any form superior. Where Gaddafi completely failed Assad seems to know the chess rules. He made the world believe that he‘s short-sighted and incompetent. But in my opinion he follows the whole time a clear strategy to maintain his rulership and to justify the abnormal violence against the civil society.
After eliminating the second generation of activists and protest organizers who at least thought about the option their successors seem apparently willing to start an armed uprising as only chance to get rid of the regime and to end the continuing crimes. What sounds like the ultima ratio bears at this point an enormous risk: If this happens before big brother Russia may have dropped down his cronies in Damascus Assad‘s tactic unfortunately has a chance for success. All what the regime wants is to turn the historic peaceful movement into a violent one. Provoking the civilians with abnormous crimes against humanity Assad urges the protesters to become frustrated and to hit back. Than the whole process of the last half year would be led ad absurdum.
Some may argue now that it is easy to sit in a safe place in the middle of Europe commenting the situation from outside. That it is arrogant to write about the inhuman incidents without ever being self in such a situation not knowing how the people inside Syria really think and feel about it. The decision in what direction the uprising may head is neither up to me nor to everybody outside. The only ones who can handle it are the Syrians in the country. But I hope that they have the power to resist all the regime‘s cold-blooded provocations. And that Assad‘s tactics will finally fail.
impressive brief of all that happened so far... and NO, he's not that good at chess! ;]
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